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Wall Street predicts extremely slow growth in yearly iPhone sales

Saqib Shah
April 17, 2014

Fortune’s latest  roundup of what major analysts are expecting Apple to report in iPhone sales next week shows worryingly slow sales growth for the high-end device.

The overall average is for quarterly sales of  38.2 million,  which would represent year-on-year growth of just two percent.

Adding to the bad news, ten of the 32 analysts included in  Fortune‘s poll predict a  fall  in sales when compared to the same quarter last year.

The negative outlook comes as a surprise when compared to the record opening weekend sales of the iPhone and Apple’s all-time high in iPhone sales reported in the first quarter of this year.

So why the pessimism regarding Q2?

Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi told investors that the numbers are hard to predict as there are conflicting factors at play, but he cites two main reasons for picking a relatively cautious number.

First, he says, sales to  China Mobile  appear to have been  slower than expected, and likely lower than Apple anticipated. With Apple at saturation point in developed markets like the US,  emerging markets are now key.

Second, US carriers have  tightened their upgrade policies, meaning more people have to either wait longer before they are entitled to a new phone, or pay more.

Meanwhile, according to  Sacconaghi, sales of the older  iPhone 4  and  4S  have been taking off in emerging markets, balancing out lower sales of the new models.

Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty adds  that recent carrier and retailer promotions are likely to have boosted sales, with the cheaper  8GB version of the iPhone 5c  also helping in some markets ‘ though these factors may have arrived  too late to affect  Q2 numbers.

Fortune‘s full analyst roundup is below. We’re likely to hear iPad and Mac forecasts before Apple reveals the actual numbers on Wednesday 23 April.

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About the Author

Saqib Shah

Tech/gaming journalist for What Mobile magazine and website. Interests include film, digital media and foreign affairs.

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